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News Details | 17-Sep-2009

Singapore Economy Forecast Update: Between ‘V’ and ‘W’


The Economic Growth Centre (EGC) of Nanyang Technological University’s School of Humanities and Social Sciences, had predicted in March this year that the worst may soon be over for the global and Singapore economies. This prediction has been confirmed by the latest economic data.

Indeed, the economy’s rebound from the trough in the first quarter was stronger than expected, leading to talk of a V-shaped recovery. In this latest forecast update, the EGC’s economists will announce that Singapore’s real GDP growth for 2009 is projected to be −2.2%, even better than the −4% they predicted in March – a forecast that has turned out in retrospect to be more accurate than most.

For 2010, the economic outlook remains uncertain and much depends on the stance of macroeconomic policies in the OECD countries. Although economic growth in Singapore is expected to moderate after the first quarter, the chance of a W-shaped ‘double-dip’ into recession is small as long as there is no premature exit from the loose fiscal and monetary policies pursued by countries around the world. Under such a scenario, the EGC expects the Singapore economy to grow again at the rate of 3.5% in 2010.

The deterioration in the labour market is also slowing down. Job losses are envisaged to peak in the current quarter, after which employment should register modest increases well into 2010. For the whole of this year, employment is projected to contract by about 31,000 while a similar number of jobs will be created next year. Reflecting this, the overall unemployment rate should stabilize at 3.3% in 2009 and 3.4% in 2010.

EGC Economic Forecasts

Period

GDP Forecasts (% change)

Employment Forecast (change)

Unemployment Forecast (%)

2009Q3

-0.3

-14,000

3.4

2009Q4

4.7

-3,000

3.2

2009

-2.2

-30,900

3.3

2010

3.5

32,000

3.4

 

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Feisal Abdul Rahman, Senior Assistant Director, Corporate Communications Office
Tel: 6790 6687; Mobile: 9675 1517; Email: feisalar@ntu.edu.sg

 

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